Arsenal Tula 0–1 Nasaf: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nasaf

B. Abdikholikov 17'

1/29/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Arsenal Tula38%

×Draw24%

Nasaf39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchNasaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.59

Arsenal Tula

1.57

Nasaf

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

0.92

creates per match

1.33

1.85

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

0.92

Nasaf

1.33

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

1.85

Nasaf

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Nasaf →

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

61%

Arsenal Tula or Nasaf

76%

Draw or Nasaf

62%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

18%

Nasaf wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

46%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

21%

Nasaf 1+ goals

80%

Nasaf 2+ goals

47%

Nasaf 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

49%

Nasaf (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 0.92 + Nasaf defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

Nasaf attack 1.33 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

38%

level

24%

Nasaf scores more

39%

Nasaf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

B. Abdikholikov

Arsenal

Nasaf

Manager: Dmitry Gunko

Manager: Ruzikul Berdiev