Arsenal Tula vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 61+ matches
Arsenal Tula38%
Dinamo Moscow36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 61 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arsenal Tula ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches
Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arsenal Tula attack 1.43 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40
Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Arsenal Tula at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Lokomotiv Moscow
Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
Spartak MoscowArsenal Tula
Orenburg
Akhmat Grozny
FC Rostov
Ural
RubinDinamo Moscow
Krylya Sovetov
FC UFA
Anzhi
EniseyIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Arsenal Tula host Dinamo Moscow on Saturday, 12 March 2022 at 13:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Arsenal Tula vs Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow beat Arsenal Tula 4-1 in Premier League on March 12, 2022.
Goals: F. Smolov (14'), E. Kangwa (30'), A. Zakharyan (46'), D. Fomin (76' pen), K. Tyukavin (90+3').
Dinamo Moscow controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 5.
The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.