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Arsenal Tula vs Akhmat Grozny — Premier League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
4/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Arsenal Tula44%
×Draw26%
Akhmat Grozny30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.45
Akhmat Grozny
1.16

Arsenal Tula creates 25% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 121 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.43
Akhmat Grozny
1.01

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
1.31
Akhmat Grozny
1.47

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
70%
Arsenal Tula or Akhmat Grozny
74%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
56%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
21%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
77%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
42%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
18%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
69%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
32%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
59%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.43 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
44%
level
26%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
30%

Arsenal Tula at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Arsenal Tula 0–0 Akhmat Grozny

Arsenal Tula and Akhmat Grozny drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.