Arsenal Tula U20 2–0 Ural U20: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula U20

FT

2 – 0

Ural U20

5/13/2021

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 7Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2054%

×Draw21%

Ural U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal Tula U20Expected goals in this matchUral U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.32

Arsenal Tula U20

2.07

Ural U20

1.32

Arsenal Tula U20 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 99 away

2.08

creates per match

1.01

1.64

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20

2.08

Ural U20

1.01

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20

1.64

Ural U20

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Ural U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw

76%

Arsenal Tula U20 or Ural U20

79%

Draw or Ural U20

46%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

32%

Ural U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

87%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

61%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

34%

Ural U20 1+ goals

73%

Ural U20 2+ goals

38%

Ural U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

69%

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.07

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

54%

level

21%

Ural U20 scores more

24%

Arsenal Tula U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff