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Arsenal Tula U20 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
FT
3 – 2
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
4/21/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 4Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2057%
×Draw21%
Ufa U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula U20
2.17
Ufa U20
1.30

Arsenal Tula U20 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20
1.64
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw
78%
Arsenal Tula U20 or Ufa U20
79%
Draw or Ufa U20
43%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
35%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
89%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
64%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
36%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
73%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
37%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
57%
level
21%
Ufa U20 scores more
22%

Arsenal Tula U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula U20 vs Ufa U20

Arsenal Tula U20 beat Ufa U20 3-2 in Youth Championship on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.