Arsenal Tula U20 1–0 Rotor Volgograd U20

Arsenal Tula U20

FT

1 – 0

Rotor Volgograd U20

A. Konev 22'

12/9/2020

Youth Championship · Round 13Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2047%

×Draw22%

Rotor Volgograd U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal Tula U20Expected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.60

Arsenal Tula U20

2.00

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.60

Arsenal Tula U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 14 away

2.08

creates per match

1.57

1.64

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20

2.08

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.57

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20

1.64

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Rotor Volgograd U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw

69%

Arsenal Tula U20 or Rotor Volgograd U20

78%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd U20

53%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

27%

Rotor Volgograd U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

86%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

59%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

32%

Rotor Volgograd U20 1+ goals

80%

Rotor Volgograd U20 2+ goals

47%

Rotor Volgograd U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Rotor Volgograd U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Rotor Volgograd U20 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Rotor Volgograd U20 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rotor Volgograd U20 attack 1.57 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

47%

level

22%

Rotor Volgograd U20 scores more

31%

Arsenal Tula U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Konev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff