Arsenal Tula U20 2–1 Orenburg U20: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula U20

FT

2 – 1

Orenburg U20

8/24/2019

Youth Championship · Round 7Stadion DYUSSH Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2053%

×Draw22%

Orenburg U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal Tula U20Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.27

Arsenal Tula U20

1.95

Orenburg U20

1.27

Arsenal Tula U20 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 11 away

2.08

creates per match

0.91

1.64

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20

2.08

Orenburg U20

0.91

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20

1.64

Orenburg U20

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Orenburg U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw

75%

Arsenal Tula U20 or Orenburg U20

78%

Draw or Orenburg U20

47%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+

31%

Orenburg U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals

86%

Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals

58%

Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals

31%

Orenburg U20 1+ goals

72%

Orenburg U20 2+ goals

36%

Orenburg U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)

68%

Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Orenburg U20 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.95

Orenburg U20 attack 0.91 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more

53%

level

22%

Orenburg U20 scores more

25%

Arsenal Tula U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff