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Arsenal Tula U20 vs Nizhny Novgorod U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nizhny Novgorod U19
Nizhny Novgorod U19
4/1/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 3Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2053%
×Draw21%
Nizhny Novgorod U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.38

Arsenal Tula U20 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 74 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.12

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20
1.64
Nizhny Novgorod U19
2.08

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw
75%
Arsenal Tula U20 or Nizhny Novgorod U19
79%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod U19
47%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
32%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
87%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
61%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
34%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals
75%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals
40%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Nizhny Novgorod U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.12 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
53%
level
21%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more
25%

Arsenal Tula U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula U20 vs Nizhny Novgorod U19

Nizhny Novgorod U19 beat Arsenal Tula U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.