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Arsenal Tula U20 vs Khimki U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
FT
2 – 3
Khimki U20
Khimki U20
4/3/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 1Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2052%
×Draw21%
Khimki U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula U20
2.15
Khimki U20
1.50

Arsenal Tula U20 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 42 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Khimki U20
1.36

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20
1.64
Khimki U20
2.21

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par
Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Khimki U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw
73%
Arsenal Tula U20 or Khimki U20
79%
Draw or Khimki U20
48%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
31%
Khimki U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
88%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
63%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
36%
Khimki U20 1+ goals
78%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
44%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.15

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
52%
level
21%
Khimki U20 scores more
27%

Arsenal Tula U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Arsenal Tula U20 2–3 Khimki U20

Khimki U20 beat Arsenal Tula U20 3-2 in Youth Championship on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.