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Arsenal Tula U20 vs Dinamo Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
FT
1 – 0
Dinamo Moskva U20
Dinamo Moskva U20
7/11/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 1Stadion DYUSSH Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2040%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Moskva U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula U20
1.69
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.60

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20
1.64
Dinamo Moskva U20
1.30

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Dinamo Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw
63%
Arsenal Tula U20 or Dinamo Moskva U20
77%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva U20
60%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
20%
Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
82%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
50%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
24%
Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Dinamo Moskva U20 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 1.60 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
40%
level
23%
Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more
37%

Arsenal Tula U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arsenal Tula U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula U20 vs Dinamo Moskva U20

Arsenal Tula U20 beat Dinamo Moskva U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on July 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion DYUSSH Arsenal in Kosaya Gora.