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Arsenal Tula II vs Strogino — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Strogino
Strogino
9/7/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Arsenal Tula II46%
×Draw25%
Strogino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
1.57
Strogino
1.20

Arsenal Tula II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 92 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Strogino
1.10

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Strogino
1.64

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Strogino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Strogino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
71%
Arsenal Tula II or Strogino
75%
Draw or Strogino
54%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
23%
Strogino wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
79%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
46%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
21%
Strogino 1+ goals
70%
Strogino 2+ goals
34%
Strogino 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
61%
Strogino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Strogino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Strogino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Strogino attack 1.10 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
46%
level
25%
Strogino scores more
29%

Arsenal Tula II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula II vs Strogino

Arsenal Tula II beat Strogino 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 7, 2025.