Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arsenal Tula II vs Sakhalinets — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
9/10/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Arsenal Tula II31%
×Draw25%
Sakhalinets44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
1.25
Sakhalinets
1.54

Sakhalinets creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 25 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Sakhalinets
1.80

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Sakhalinets
1.00

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Sakhalinets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
56%
Arsenal Tula II or Sakhalinets
75%
Draw or Sakhalinets
69%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
13%
Sakhalinets wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
71%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
36%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
13%
Sakhalinets 1+ goals
79%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
45%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
41%
Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Sakhalinets away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Sakhalinets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sakhalinets attack 1.80 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
31%
level
25%
Sakhalinets scores more
44%

Sakhalinets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sakhalinets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Arsenal Tula II 1–3 Sakhalinets

Sakhalinets beat Arsenal Tula II 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.