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Arsenal Tula II vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
10/8/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Arsenal Tula II55%
×Draw22%
Peresvet Podolsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
2.02
Peresvet Podolsk
1.27

Arsenal Tula II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 42 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
76%
Arsenal Tula II or Peresvet Podolsk
78%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
45%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
32%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
87%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
60%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
33%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
72%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
36%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
70%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.02

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
55%
level
22%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
24%

Arsenal Tula II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Arsenal Tula II 1–1 Peresvet Podolsk

Arsenal Tula II and Peresvet Podolsk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.