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Arsenal Tula II vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
4/15/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Arsenal Tula II45%
×Draw24%
Khimki II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
1.67
Khimki II
1.33

Arsenal Tula II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 74 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
69%
Arsenal Tula II or Khimki II
76%
Draw or Khimki II
55%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
24%
Khimki II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
81%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
50%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
23%
Khimki II 1+ goals
74%
Khimki II 2+ goals
38%
Khimki II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
60%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
45%
level
24%
Khimki II scores more
31%

Arsenal Tula II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Arsenal Tula II 2–0 Khimki II

Arsenal Tula II beat Khimki II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.