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Arsenal Tula II vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
9/21/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Arsenal Tula II36%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Vladivostok38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
1.33
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 55 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
62%
Arsenal Tula II or Dinamo Vladivostok
74%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
64%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
16%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
74%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
38%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
49%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
36%
level
26%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
38%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula II vs Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Arsenal Tula II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.