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Arsenal Tivat vs Cetinje — Second League 2019

Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
FT
2 – 0
Cetinje
Cetinje
10/3/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion u Parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arsenal Tivat67%
×Draw20%
Cetinje13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tivat
2.04
Cetinje
0.75

Arsenal Tivat creates 172% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tivat
1.65
Cetinje
0.56

allows per match

Arsenal Tivat
0.94
Cetinje
2.44

finishing

Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par
Cetinje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tivat ↓

Cetinje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arsenal Tivat or draw
87%
Arsenal Tivat or Cetinje
80%
Draw or Cetinje
33%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+
42%
Cetinje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals
87%
Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals
60%
Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals
33%
Cetinje 1+ goals
53%
Cetinje 2+ goals
17%
Cetinje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)
84%
Cetinje (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tivat at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Cetinje away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tivat attack 1.65 + Cetinje defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cetinje attack 0.56 + Arsenal Tivat defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Arsenal Tivat scores more
67%
level
20%
Cetinje scores more
13%

Arsenal Tivat at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Arsenal Tivat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tivat vs Cetinje

Arsenal Tivat beat Cetinje 2-0 in Second League on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion u Parku in Tivat.