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Arsenal Sarandi vs Talleres Remedios — Primera Nacional 2026

Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
3/17/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 7Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Arsenal Sarandi54%
×Draw30%
Talleres Remedios17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Sarandi
1.27
Talleres Remedios
0.57

Arsenal Sarandi creates 123% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 36 away

creates per match

Arsenal Sarandi
1.27
Talleres Remedios
0.44

allows per match

Arsenal Sarandi
0.71
Talleres Remedios
1.28

finishing

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par
Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Sarandi ↓

Talleres Remedios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Arsenal Sarandi or draw
83%
Arsenal Sarandi or Talleres Remedios
70%
Draw or Talleres Remedios
46%

Winning margin

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
25%
Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
72%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
36%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
14%
Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
43%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
11%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
76%
Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Sarandi at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Talleres Remedios away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.27 + Talleres Remedios defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Talleres Remedios attack 0.44 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arsenal Sarandi scores more
54%
level
30%
Talleres Remedios scores more
17%

Arsenal Sarandi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Arsenal Sarandi 2–1 Talleres Remedios

Arsenal Sarandi beat Talleres Remedios 2-1 in Primera Nacional on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.