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Arsenal Sarandi vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platense
F. Kruspzky 77'
A. Costa 52'
7/16/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Sarandi40%
×Draw29%
Platense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Sarandi
1.19
Platense
1.02

Arsenal Sarandi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 93 away

creates per match

Arsenal Sarandi
1.14
Platense
0.90

allows per match

Arsenal Sarandi
1.14
Platense
1.24

finishing

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par
Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Sarandi ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arsenal Sarandi or draw
69%
Arsenal Sarandi or Platense
71%
Draw or Platense
60%

Winning margin

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
17%
Platense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
70%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
33%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
12%
Platense 1+ goals
64%
Platense 2+ goals
27%
Platense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
56%
Platense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Sarandi at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Platense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.14 + Platense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.90 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arsenal Sarandi scores more
40%
level
29%
Platense scores more
31%

Arsenal Sarandi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79
A. CostaPlatensePlatense · D
7.9

Match Events

13'
G. Goni
24'
I. Gariglio← J. Pombo
25'
R. Contreras
52'
A. Costa
57'
H. Tijanovich← A. Sabella
63'
A. Díaz← J. Ibáñez
63'
B. Rivero← J. Navas
66'
F. Kruspzky
66'
A. Medina
77'
F. Kruspzky↳ C. Chimino
81'
V. Taborda← M. Zárate
81'
J. Esquivel← I. Schor
85'
F. Gino
88'
L. Marchi

Possession

52%Arsenal

Shots

6Arsenal

Pass accuracy

48%Arsenal

Statistics

ArsenalPlatense
Overview
52%Possession48%
6Total Shots15
1Corners5
11Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots15
3On Target4
2Off Target7
1Blocked4
4Inside Box7
2Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
344Total Passes297
212Accurate Passes197
62%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Arsenal Sarandi vs Platense

Arsenal Sarandi and Platense drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 16, 2022.

Goals: A. Costa (52'), F. Kruspzky (77').

Arsenal Sarandi controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.