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Arsenal Sarandi vs Gimnasia Jujuy — Primera Nacional 2026

Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gimnasia Jujuy
Gimnasia Jujuy
8/25/2018Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 1Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arsenal Sarandi50%
×Draw29%
Gimnasia Jujuy21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Sarandi
1.30
Gimnasia Jujuy
0.73

Arsenal Sarandi creates 78% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 128 away

creates per match

Arsenal Sarandi
1.27
Gimnasia Jujuy
0.76

allows per match

Arsenal Sarandi
0.71
Gimnasia Jujuy
1.33

finishing

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par
Gimnasia Jujuy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Sarandi ↓

Gimnasia Jujuy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arsenal Sarandi or draw
79%
Arsenal Sarandi or Gimnasia Jujuy
71%
Draw or Gimnasia Jujuy
50%

Winning margin

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
24%
Gimnasia Jujuy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
73%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
37%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
14%
Gimnasia Jujuy 1+ goals
52%
Gimnasia Jujuy 2+ goals
17%
Gimnasia Jujuy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
71%
Gimnasia Jujuy (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Sarandi at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Gimnasia Jujuy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.33 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.27 + Gimnasia Jujuy defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gimnasia Jujuy attack 0.76 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arsenal Sarandi scores more
50%
level
29%
Gimnasia Jujuy scores more
21%

Arsenal Sarandi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Sarandi 1 – 1 Gimnasia Jujuy

Arsenal Sarandi and Gimnasia Jujuy drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires).