Arsenal Česká Lípa 1–1 Sokol Zápy: Result & Stats

Arsenal Česká Lípa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sokol Zápy

D. Halbich 12'

M. Jelinek 49'

4/6/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 21Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa45%

×Draw25%

Sokol Zápy30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal Česká LípaExpected goals in this matchSokol Zápy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.20

Arsenal Česká Lípa

1.52

Sokol Zápy

1.20

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 79 away

1.87

creates per match

1.37

1.02

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa

1.87

Sokol Zápy

1.37

allows per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa

1.02

Sokol Zápy

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Česká Lípa ↓

Sokol Zápy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal Česká Lípa or draw

70%

Arsenal Česká Lípa or Sokol Zápy

75%

Draw or Sokol Zápy

55%

Winning margin

Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+

22%

Sokol Zápy wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals

45%

Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals

20%

Sokol Zápy 1+ goals

70%

Sokol Zápy 2+ goals

34%

Sokol Zápy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)

60%

Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Česká Lípa at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

Sokol Zápy away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.87 + Sokol Zápy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sokol Zápy attack 1.37 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more

45%

level

25%

Sokol Zápy scores more

30%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Halbich

45'

D. Hajdo

46'

D. Stropek← D. Stropek

49'

M. Jelinek

55'

K. Knejzlik← M. Struzinsky

55'

T. Matejka

64'

J. Jeseta← J. Jeseta

76'

T. Weis← T. Weis

84'

F. Zoubek← F. Zoubek

88'

M. Zizka← M. Zizka

88'

M. Kazda← D. Pajkrt

90'

M. Zizka

90+2'

M. Simon

90+3'

O. Kocourek← J. Duben

90+4'

T. Matejka

90+4'

T. Matejka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff