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Arroyo vs Plasencia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Arroyo
Arroyo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Plasencia
Plasencia
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Arroyo43%
×Draw28%
Plasencia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arroyo
1.30
Plasencia
1.02

Arroyo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 57 away

creates per match

Arroyo
1.20
Plasencia
0.86

allows per match

Arroyo
1.18
Plasencia
1.40

finishing

Arroyo+0.00on par
Plasencia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arroyo ↓

Plasencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arroyo or draw
71%
Arroyo or Plasencia
72%
Draw or Plasencia
57%

Winning margin

Arroyo wins by 2+
20%
Plasencia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arroyo 1+ goals
73%
Arroyo 2+ goals
37%
Arroyo 3+ goals
14%
Plasencia 1+ goals
64%
Plasencia 2+ goals
27%
Plasencia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arroyo (draw refunded)
60%
Plasencia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arroyo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.18 · 92 matches

Plasencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arroyo attack 1.20 + Plasencia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Plasencia attack 0.86 + Arroyo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arroyo scores more
43%
level
28%
Plasencia scores more
29%

Arroyo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arroyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Arroyo 1–2 Plasencia

Plasencia beat Arroyo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz in Arroyo de la Luz.