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Arroyo vs Moralo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Arroyo
Arroyo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Moralo
Moralo
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Arroyo35%
×Draw27%
Moralo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arroyo
1.21
Moralo
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 111 away

creates per match

Arroyo
1.20
Moralo
1.39

allows per match

Arroyo
1.18
Moralo
1.23

finishing

Arroyo+0.00on par
Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arroyo ↓

Moralo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arroyo or draw
62%
Arroyo or Moralo
73%
Draw or Moralo
65%

Winning margin

Arroyo wins by 2+
15%
Moralo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arroyo 1+ goals
70%
Arroyo 2+ goals
34%
Arroyo 3+ goals
12%
Moralo 1+ goals
72%
Moralo 2+ goals
37%
Moralo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arroyo (draw refunded)
48%
Moralo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arroyo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.18 · 92 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arroyo attack 1.20 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Moralo attack 1.39 + Arroyo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arroyo scores more
35%
level
27%
Moralo scores more
38%

Moralo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Arroyo 2–1 Moralo

Arroyo beat Moralo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz in Arroyo de la Luz.