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Arroyo vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Arroyo
Arroyo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Arroyo40%
×Draw28%
Extremadura UD II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arroyo
1.22
Extremadura UD II
1.05

Arroyo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 42 away

creates per match

Arroyo
1.20
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Arroyo
1.18
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Arroyo+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arroyo ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arroyo or draw
68%
Arroyo or Extremadura UD II
72%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
60%

Winning margin

Arroyo wins by 2+
17%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arroyo 1+ goals
70%
Arroyo 2+ goals
34%
Arroyo 3+ goals
12%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
65%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
28%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arroyo (draw refunded)
56%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arroyo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.18 · 92 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arroyo attack 1.20 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Arroyo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arroyo scores more
40%
level
28%
Extremadura UD II scores more
32%

Arroyo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arroyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arroyo vs Extremadura UD II

Arroyo beat Extremadura UD II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz in Arroyo de la Luz.