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Arroyo vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Arroyo
Arroyo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Arroyo51%
×Draw26%
Don Álvaro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arroyo
1.54
Don Álvaro
0.95

Arroyo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 47 away

creates per match

Arroyo
1.20
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Arroyo
1.18
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Arroyo+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arroyo ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arroyo or draw
77%
Arroyo or Don Álvaro
74%
Draw or Don Álvaro
49%

Winning margin

Arroyo wins by 2+
26%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arroyo 1+ goals
79%
Arroyo 2+ goals
45%
Arroyo 3+ goals
20%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
61%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
25%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arroyo (draw refunded)
69%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arroyo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.18 · 92 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arroyo attack 1.20 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.54

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Arroyo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arroyo scores more
51%
level
26%
Don Álvaro scores more
23%

Arroyo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arroyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Arroyo 1–1 Don Álvaro

Arroyo and Don Álvaro drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz in Arroyo de la Luz.