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Arroyo vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Arroyo
Arroyo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Castuera
Castuera
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Arroyo45%
×Draw27%
Castuera28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arroyo
1.40
Castuera
1.03

Arroyo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 34 away

creates per match

Arroyo
1.20
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Arroyo
1.18
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Arroyo+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arroyo ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arroyo or draw
72%
Arroyo or Castuera
73%
Draw or Castuera
55%

Winning margin

Arroyo wins by 2+
22%
Castuera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arroyo 1+ goals
75%
Arroyo 2+ goals
41%
Arroyo 3+ goals
17%
Castuera 1+ goals
64%
Castuera 2+ goals
28%
Castuera 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arroyo (draw refunded)
62%
Castuera (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arroyo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.18 · 92 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arroyo attack 1.20 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Castuera attack 0.88 + Arroyo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arroyo scores more
45%
level
27%
Castuera scores more
28%

Arroyo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arroyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arroyo vs Castuera

Arroyo and Castuera drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Arroyo de la Luz in Arroyo de la Luz.