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Arronches e Benfica vs Vila Real — Taça de Portugal 2018

Arronches e Benfica
Arronches e Benfica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vila Real
Vila Real
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal Arronches

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arronches e Benfica29%
×Draw32%
Vila Real38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arronches e Benfica
0.83
Vila Real
1.00

Vila Real creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Arronches e Benfica
0.67
Vila Real
1.00

allows per match

Arronches e Benfica
1.00
Vila Real
1.00

finishing

Arronches e Benfica+0.00on par
Vila Real+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arronches e Benfica ↓

Vila Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Arronches e Benfica or draw
62%
Arronches e Benfica or Vila Real
68%
Draw or Vila Real
71%

Winning margin

Arronches e Benfica wins by 2+
10%
Vila Real wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arronches e Benfica 1+ goals
56%
Arronches e Benfica 2+ goals
20%
Arronches e Benfica 3+ goals
5%
Vila Real 1+ goals
63%
Vila Real 2+ goals
26%
Vila Real 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arronches e Benfica (draw refunded)
43%
Vila Real (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arronches e Benfica at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Vila Real away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arronches e Benfica attack 0.67 + Vila Real defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Vila Real attack 1.00 + Arronches e Benfica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arronches e Benfica scores more
29%
level
32%
Vila Real scores more
38%

Vila Real at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vila Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arronches e Benfica vs Vila Real

Vila Real beat Arronches e Benfica 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arronches in Arronches.