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Arronches e Benfica vs Vianense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Arronches e Benfica
Arronches e Benfica
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vianense
Vianense
10/1/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal Arronches

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arronches e Benfica15%
×Draw23%
Vianense62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arronches e Benfica
0.69
Vianense
1.72

Vianense creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Arronches e Benfica
0.67
Vianense
2.43

allows per match

Arronches e Benfica
1.00
Vianense
0.71

finishing

Arronches e Benfica+0.00on par
Vianense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arronches e Benfica ↓

Vianense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arronches e Benfica or draw
38%
Arronches e Benfica or Vianense
77%
Draw or Vianense
85%

Winning margin

Arronches e Benfica wins by 2+
4%
Vianense wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Arronches e Benfica 1+ goals
50%
Arronches e Benfica 2+ goals
15%
Arronches e Benfica 3+ goals
3%
Vianense 1+ goals
82%
Vianense 2+ goals
51%
Vianense 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Arronches e Benfica (draw refunded)
19%
Vianense (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arronches e Benfica at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Vianense away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arronches e Benfica attack 0.67 + Vianense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Vianense attack 2.43 + Arronches e Benfica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Arronches e Benfica scores more
15%
level
23%
Vianense scores more
62%

Vianense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vianense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arronches e Benfica vs Vianense

Vianense beat Arronches e Benfica 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arronches in Arronches.