Arouca 1–0 Merelinense: Result & Stats

Arouca

1 – 0

Merelinense

10/20/2019

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arouca47%

×Draw25%

Merelinense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AroucaExpected goals in this matchMerelinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Arouca

1.56

Merelinense

1.14

Arouca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

1.60

0.67

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Arouca

2.33

Merelinense

1.60

allows per match

Arouca

0.67

Merelinense

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arouca+0.00on par

Merelinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Merelinense →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arouca or draw

72%

Arouca or Merelinense

75%

Draw or Merelinense

53%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+

24%

Merelinense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals

79%

Arouca 2+ goals

46%

Arouca 3+ goals

21%

Merelinense 1+ goals

68%

Merelinense 2+ goals

32%

Merelinense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)

63%

Merelinense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Merelinense away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 2.33 + Merelinense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Merelinense attack 1.60 + Arouca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arouca scores more

47%

level

25%

Merelinense scores more

28%

Arouca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff