Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arouca vs Feirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Arouca
Arouca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
Heliardo 90+1'
3/27/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 26Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Arouca41%
×Draw29%
Feirense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arouca
1.23
Feirense
1.00

Arouca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 115 away

creates per match

Arouca
1.29
Feirense
1.09

allows per match

Arouca
0.91
Feirense
1.18

finishing

Arouca+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arouca or draw
70%
Arouca or Feirense
71%
Draw or Feirense
59%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+
18%
Feirense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals
71%
Arouca 2+ goals
35%
Arouca 3+ goals
13%
Feirense 1+ goals
63%
Feirense 2+ goals
26%
Feirense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)
58%
Feirense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 1.29 + Feirense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Feirense attack 1.09 + Arouca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arouca scores more
41%
level
29%
Feirense scores more
30%

Arouca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Washington
22'
Mica
46'
Pité← L. Ofori
49'
Joel
61'
Heliardo← A. Bukia
61'
Edson Farias← Washington Santana
62'
Fabrício Simões← João Victor
70'
Platiny← João Tavares
70'
L. Fall← Feliz Vaz
74'
Pedro Moreira
87'
M. Caballero← Leandro Silva
88'
Y. Moses← André Silva
89'
Fábio Espinho← Mica
90+6'
Brunão← Arsénio
90+1'
Heliardo

Possession

50%Arouca

Shots

5Arouca

Statistics

AroucaFeirense
Overview
50%Possession50%
5Total Shots6
1Corners4
18Fouls14
Shots
5Total Shots6
3On Target2
2Off Target4
Passing
50%Possession50%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Segunda Liga: Arouca 1–0 Feirense

Arouca beat Feirense 1-0 in Segunda Liga on March 27, 2021.

Goals: Heliardo (90+1').

Arouca controlled possession (50%) and registered 5 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca.