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Arouca vs Estrela — Primeira Liga 2018

Arouca
Arouca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estrela
Estrela
4/19/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 30Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Arouca43%
×Draw26%
Estrela30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arouca
1.41
Estrela
1.13

Arouca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arouca
1.09
Estrela
0.92

allows per match

Arouca
1.33
Estrela
1.73

finishing

Arouca+0.36scores more
Estrela+0.03on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arouca or draw
70%
Arouca or Estrela
74%
Draw or Estrela
57%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+
21%
Estrela wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals
76%
Arouca 2+ goals
41%
Arouca 3+ goals
17%
Estrela 1+ goals
68%
Estrela 2+ goals
31%
Estrela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)
59%
Estrela (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.33 · 20 matches

Estrela away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.73 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 1.09 + Estrela defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Estrela attack 0.92 + Arouca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arouca scores more
43%
level
26%
Estrela scores more
30%

Arouca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Arouca 1–0 Estrela

Arouca beat Estrela 1-0 in Primeira Liga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca.