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Arouca vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

Arouca
Arouca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
5/20/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 33Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Arouca47%
×Draw26%
Chaves27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arouca
1.50
Chaves
1.07

Arouca creates 40% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 52 away

creates per match

Arouca
1.28
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

Arouca
1.39
Chaves
1.71

finishing

Arouca+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arouca or draw
73%
Arouca or Chaves
74%
Draw or Chaves
53%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+
24%
Chaves wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals
78%
Arouca 2+ goals
44%
Arouca 3+ goals
19%
Chaves 1+ goals
66%
Chaves 2+ goals
29%
Chaves 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)
64%
Chaves (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.39 · 87 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 1.28 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chaves attack 0.75 + Arouca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arouca scores more
47%
level
26%
Chaves scores more
27%

Arouca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arouca vs Chaves

Arouca beat Chaves 1-0 in Primeira Liga on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca.