Arouca 1–1 Boavista: Result & Stats

Arouca

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Boavista

11/26/2023

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arouca52%

×Draw23%

Boavista24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AroucaExpected goals in this matchBoavista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.15

Arouca

1.79

Boavista

1.15

Arouca creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

1.63

0.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Arouca

2.33

Boavista

1.63

allows per match

Arouca

0.67

Boavista

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arouca+0.00on par

Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arouca ↓

Boavista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arouca or draw

76%

Arouca or Boavista

77%

Draw or Boavista

48%

Winning margin

Arouca wins by 2+

29%

Boavista wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arouca 1+ goals

83%

Arouca 2+ goals

53%

Arouca 3+ goals

26%

Boavista 1+ goals

68%

Boavista 2+ goals

32%

Boavista 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arouca (draw refunded)

68%

Boavista (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arouca at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arouca attack 2.33 + Boavista defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Boavista attack 1.63 + Arouca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arouca scores more

52%

level

23%

Boavista scores more

24%

Arouca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff