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Arosa vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arosa
Arosa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Barco
Barco
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio A Lomba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Arosa47%
×Draw26%
Barco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arosa
1.46
Barco
1.02

Arosa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

creates per match

Arosa
1.51
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Arosa
0.84
Barco
1.42

finishing

Arosa+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arosa ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arosa or draw
74%
Arosa or Barco
74%
Draw or Barco
53%

Winning margin

Arosa wins by 2+
23%
Barco wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arosa 1+ goals
77%
Arosa 2+ goals
43%
Arosa 3+ goals
18%
Barco 1+ goals
64%
Barco 2+ goals
27%
Barco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arosa (draw refunded)
64%
Barco (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arosa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.84 · 93 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arosa attack 1.51 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barco attack 1.21 + Arosa defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arosa scores more
47%
level
26%
Barco scores more
26%

Arosa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Arosa 2–0 Barco

Arosa beat Barco 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio A Lomba in Vilagarcía de Arousa.