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Arosa vs Atios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arosa
Arosa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atios
Atios
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio A Lomba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arosa57%
×Draw25%
Atios18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arosa
1.61
Atios
0.77

Arosa creates 109% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arosa
1.51
Atios
0.71

allows per match

Arosa
0.84
Atios
1.71

finishing

Arosa+0.00on par
Atios+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arosa ↓

Atios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arosa or draw
82%
Arosa or Atios
75%
Draw or Atios
43%

Winning margin

Arosa wins by 2+
31%
Atios wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arosa 1+ goals
80%
Arosa 2+ goals
48%
Arosa 3+ goals
22%
Atios 1+ goals
54%
Atios 2+ goals
18%
Atios 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arosa (draw refunded)
76%
Atios (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arosa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.84 · 93 matches

Atios away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arosa attack 1.51 + Atios defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atios attack 0.71 + Arosa defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arosa scores more
57%
level
25%
Atios scores more
18%

Arosa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Arosa 1–0 Atios

Arosa beat Atios 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio A Lomba in Vilagarcía de Arousa.