Arnstadt vs Rot-weiss Erfurt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Arnstadt15%
Rot-weiss Erfurt66%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rot-weiss Erfurt creates 127% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arnstadt ↓
Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches
Rot-weiss Erfurt away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Rot-weiss Erfurt defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.05
Rot-weiss Erfurt attack 2.53 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
Rot-weiss Erfurt at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "Rot-weiss Erfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
RSV Eintracht
SC Freital
Plauen
Auerbach
Germania Halberstadt
VfL Halle
Budissa Bautzen
Krieschow
Empor Glauchau
Union Sandersdorf
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Rudolstadt
FC Lok Stendal
FC Grimma
Bischofswerdaer FV
HeiligenstadtIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Arnstadt host Rot-weiss Erfurt on Friday, 3 June 2022 at 16:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020/2021 season.
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Arnstadt 2–5 Rot-weiss Erfurt
Rot-weiss Erfurt beat Arnstadt 5-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on June 3, 2022.
The match was played at Sportplatz am Obertung in Arnstadt.