Arnstadt 0–3 Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

Arnstadt

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

4/10/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23Sportplatz am Obertung

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arnstadt39%

×Draw24%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnstadtExpected goals in this matchOberlausitz Neugersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.58

Arnstadt

1.60

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.31

creates per match

0.92

2.24

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Arnstadt

1.31

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

0.92

allows per match

Arnstadt

2.24

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw

62%

Arnstadt or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

76%

Draw or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

61%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+

19%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals

80%

Arnstadt 2+ goals

47%

Arnstadt 3+ goals

22%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals

79%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals

47%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)

51%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 0.92 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arnstadt scores more

39%

level

24%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more

38%

Arnstadt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arnstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff