Arnstadt 2–3 Motor Marienberg: Result & Stats

Arnstadt

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Motor Marienberg

9/23/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 7Sportplatz am Obertung

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arnstadt58%

×Draw19%

Motor Marienberg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnstadtExpected goals in this matchMotor Marienberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.49

Arnstadt

2.46

Motor Marienberg

1.49

Arnstadt creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

1.31

creates per match

0.73

2.24

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Arnstadt

1.31

Motor Marienberg

0.73

allows per match

Arnstadt

2.24

Motor Marienberg

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Motor Marienberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw

77%

Arnstadt or Motor Marienberg

81%

Draw or Motor Marienberg

42%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+

37%

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals

91%

Arnstadt 2+ goals

70%

Arnstadt 3+ goals

44%

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals

77%

Motor Marienberg 2+ goals

44%

Motor Marienberg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)

72%

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.46

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Arnstadt scores more

58%

level

19%

Motor Marienberg scores more

23%

Arnstadt at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Arnstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff