Arnstadt 0–2 Magdeburg II: Result & Stats

Arnstadt

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Magdeburg II

9/2/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Sportplatz am Obertung

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arnstadt17%

×Draw18%

Magdeburg II65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnstadtExpected goals in this matchMagdeburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.49

Arnstadt

1.22

Magdeburg II

2.49

Magdeburg II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

1.31

creates per match

2.73

2.24

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Arnstadt

1.31

Magdeburg II

2.73

allows per match

Arnstadt

2.24

Magdeburg II

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par

Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Magdeburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw

35%

Arnstadt or Magdeburg II

82%

Draw or Magdeburg II

83%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+

7%

Magdeburg II wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals

70%

Arnstadt 2+ goals

34%

Arnstadt 3+ goals

12%

Magdeburg II 1+ goals

92%

Magdeburg II 2+ goals

71%

Magdeburg II 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)

21%

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Magdeburg II attack 2.73 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Arnstadt scores more

17%

level

18%

Magdeburg II scores more

65%

Magdeburg II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff