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Arnstadt vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Arnstadt
Arnstadt
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
4/13/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23Sportplatz am Obertung

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arnstadt38%
×Draw22%
Einheit Wernigerode40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnstadt
1.76
Einheit Wernigerode
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

creates per match

Arnstadt
1.31
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

Arnstadt
2.24
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw
60%
Arnstadt or Einheit Wernigerode
78%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
62%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+
19%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals
83%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
52%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
26%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
84%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
54%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)
49%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.76

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arnstadt scores more
38%
level
22%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
40%

Einheit Wernigerode at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Arnstadt 2–3 Einheit Wernigerode

Einheit Wernigerode beat Arnstadt 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Obertung in Arnstadt.