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Arnstadt vs Carl Zeiss Jena II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Arnstadt
Arnstadt
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carl Zeiss Jena II
Carl Zeiss Jena II
5/14/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Sportplatz am Obertung

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Arnstadt31%
×Draw22%
Carl Zeiss Jena II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnstadt
1.58
Carl Zeiss Jena II
2.00

Carl Zeiss Jena II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Arnstadt
1.31
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.77

allows per match

Arnstadt
2.24
Carl Zeiss Jena II
1.86

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw
52%
Arnstadt or Carl Zeiss Jena II
78%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II
69%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+
15%
Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals
79%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
47%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
21%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals
86%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals
59%
Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)
39%
Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arnstadt scores more
31%
level
22%
Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more
48%

Carl Zeiss Jena II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arnstadt vs Carl Zeiss Jena II

Arnstadt beat Carl Zeiss Jena II 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Obertung in Arnstadt.