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Arnstadt vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Arnstadt
Arnstadt
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
4/16/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24Sportplatz am Obertung

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Arnstadt34%
×Draw21%
Budissa Bautzen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnstadt
1.72
Budissa Bautzen
2.01

Budissa Bautzen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

creates per match

Arnstadt
1.31
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

Arnstadt
2.24
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

Arnstadt+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnstadt ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Arnstadt or draw
55%
Arnstadt or Budissa Bautzen
79%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
66%

Winning margin

Arnstadt wins by 2+
17%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Arnstadt 1+ goals
82%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
51%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
25%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
87%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
59%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Arnstadt (draw refunded)
43%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnstadt at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnstadt attack 1.31 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.72

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Arnstadt defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arnstadt scores more
34%
level
21%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
45%

Budissa Bautzen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arnstadt vs Budissa Bautzen

Arnstadt and Budissa Bautzen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Obertung in Arnstadt.