Arnett Gardens 1–3 Tivoli Gardens: Result & Stats

Arnett Gardens

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Tivoli Gardens

11/12/2023

Premier League · Round 4Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Arnett Gardens46%

×Draw26%

Tivoli Gardens29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arnett GardensExpected goals in this matchTivoli Gardens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Arnett Gardens

1.52

Tivoli Gardens

1.14

Arnett Gardens creates 33% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

1.60

creates per match

1.24

1.03

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Arnett Gardens

1.60

Tivoli Gardens

1.24

allows per match

Arnett Gardens

1.03

Tivoli Gardens

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnett Gardens ↓

Tivoli Gardens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arnett Gardens or draw

71%

Arnett Gardens or Tivoli Gardens

74%

Draw or Tivoli Gardens

54%

Winning margin

Arnett Gardens wins by 2+

23%

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arnett Gardens 1+ goals

78%

Arnett Gardens 2+ goals

45%

Arnett Gardens 3+ goals

20%

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals

68%

Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals

32%

Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)

62%

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnett Gardens at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 99 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnett Gardens attack 1.60 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arnett Gardens scores more

46%

level

26%

Tivoli Gardens scores more

29%

Arnett Gardens at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff