Arnett Gardens 4–2 Montego Bay United

Arnett Gardens

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Montego Bay United

5/23/2025

Premier League · 3rd Place FinalIndependence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Arnett Gardens46%

×Draw26%

Montego Bay United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arnett GardensExpected goals in this matchMontego Bay United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Arnett Gardens

1.48

Montego Bay United

1.08

Arnett Gardens creates 37% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 80 away

1.60

creates per match

1.13

1.03

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Arnett Gardens

1.60

Montego Bay United

1.13

allows per match

Arnett Gardens

1.03

Montego Bay United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Montego Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnett Gardens ↓

Montego Bay United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arnett Gardens or draw

72%

Arnett Gardens or Montego Bay United

74%

Draw or Montego Bay United

54%

Winning margin

Arnett Gardens wins by 2+

23%

Montego Bay United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arnett Gardens 1+ goals

77%

Arnett Gardens 2+ goals

43%

Arnett Gardens 3+ goals

19%

Montego Bay United 1+ goals

66%

Montego Bay United 2+ goals

29%

Montego Bay United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)

63%

Montego Bay United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnett Gardens at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 99 matches

Montego Bay United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.36 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnett Gardens attack 1.60 + Montego Bay United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Montego Bay United attack 1.13 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arnett Gardens scores more

46%

level

26%

Montego Bay United scores more

28%

Arnett Gardens at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff