Arnett Gardens 0–0 Molynes United: Result & Stats

Arnett Gardens

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Molynes United

1/23/2025

Premier League · Round 19Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Arnett Gardens50%

×Draw25%

Molynes United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arnett GardensExpected goals in this matchMolynes United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.04

Arnett Gardens

1.60

Molynes United

1.04

Arnett Gardens creates 54% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 97 away

1.60

creates per match

1.05

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Arnett Gardens

1.60

Molynes United

1.05

allows per match

Arnett Gardens

1.03

Molynes United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Molynes United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnett Gardens ↓

Molynes United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arnett Gardens or draw

75%

Arnett Gardens or Molynes United

75%

Draw or Molynes United

50%

Winning margin

Arnett Gardens wins by 2+

26%

Molynes United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arnett Gardens 1+ goals

80%

Arnett Gardens 2+ goals

47%

Arnett Gardens 3+ goals

22%

Molynes United 1+ goals

65%

Molynes United 2+ goals

28%

Molynes United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)

67%

Molynes United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnett Gardens at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 99 matches

Molynes United away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnett Gardens attack 1.60 + Molynes United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Molynes United attack 1.05 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arnett Gardens scores more

50%

level

25%

Molynes United scores more

25%

Arnett Gardens at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff