Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arnett Gardens vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
3/12/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Arnett Gardens72%
×Draw18%
Lime Hall Academy10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnett Gardens
2.23
Lime Hall Academy
0.71

Arnett Gardens creates 214% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 13 away

creates per match

Arnett Gardens
1.60
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Arnett Gardens
1.03
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Arnett Gardens+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnett Gardens ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Arnett Gardens or draw
90%
Arnett Gardens or Lime Hall Academy
82%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
28%

Winning margin

Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
48%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
89%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
65%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
38%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
51%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
16%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
87%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnett Gardens at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 99 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnett Gardens attack 1.60 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.23

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Arnett Gardens scores more
72%
level
18%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
10%

Arnett Gardens at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arnett Gardens vs Lime Hall Academy

Arnett Gardens beat Lime Hall Academy 3-0 in Premier League on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.