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Arnett Gardens vs Harbour View — Premier League 2019

Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Harbour View
Harbour View
5/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 39Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Arnett Gardens50%
×Draw25%
Harbour View25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnett Gardens
1.56
Harbour View
1.02

Arnett Gardens creates 53% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

creates per match

Arnett Gardens
1.60
Harbour View
1.02

allows per match

Arnett Gardens
1.03
Harbour View
1.52

finishing

Arnett Gardens+0.00on par
Harbour View+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnett Gardens ↓

Harbour View →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arnett Gardens or draw
75%
Arnett Gardens or Harbour View
75%
Draw or Harbour View
50%

Winning margin

Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
26%
Harbour View wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
79%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
46%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
21%
Harbour View 1+ goals
64%
Harbour View 2+ goals
27%
Harbour View 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
67%
Harbour View (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnett Gardens at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 99 matches

Harbour View away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnett Gardens attack 1.60 + Harbour View defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Harbour View attack 1.02 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arnett Gardens scores more
50%
level
25%
Harbour View scores more
25%

Arnett Gardens at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Arnett Gardens 5–1 Harbour View

Arnett Gardens beat Harbour View 5-1 in Premier League on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.