Arnett Gardens vs Faulkland — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Arnett Gardens61%
Faulkland16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arnett Gardens creates 123% more chances
Season form · 98 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arnett Gardens ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arnett Gardens at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches
Faulkland away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arnett Gardens attack 1.59 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83
Faulkland attack 0.62 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Arnett Gardens at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Waterhouse
Mount Pleasant Academy
Portmore United
Humble Lions
Tivoli Gardens
DunbeholdenArnett Gardens
Cavalier
Harbour View
Molynes United
UWI
Vere UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Arnett Gardens host Faulkland on Tuesday, 24 January 2023 at 00:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Arnett Gardens 0 – 0 Faulkland
Arnett Gardens and Faulkland drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 24, 2023.
The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.