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Arnedo vs Yagüe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Arnedo
Arnedo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Yagüe
Yagüe
3/29/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 28Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Arnedo63%
×Draw21%
Yagüe16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnedo
1.96
Yagüe
0.85

Arnedo creates 131% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 91 away

creates per match

Arnedo
1.92
Yagüe
0.90

allows per match

Arnedo
0.81
Yagüe
1.99

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par
Yagüe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Yagüe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw
84%
Arnedo or Yagüe
79%
Draw or Yagüe
37%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+
38%
Yagüe wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals
86%
Arnedo 2+ goals
58%
Arnedo 3+ goals
31%
Yagüe 1+ goals
57%
Yagüe 2+ goals
21%
Yagüe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)
80%
Yagüe (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Yagüe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.99 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Yagüe defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.96

Yagüe attack 0.90 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Arnedo scores more
63%
level
21%
Yagüe scores more
16%

Arnedo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 3–0 Yagüe

Arnedo beat Yagüe 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.