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Arnedo vs SD Logroñés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Arnedo
Arnedo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arnedo27%
×Draw25%
SD Logroñés47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnedo
1.13
SD Logroñés
1.57

SD Logroñés creates 39% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Arnedo
1.92
SD Logroñés
2.33

allows per match

Arnedo
0.81
SD Logroñés
0.33

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw
53%
Arnedo or SD Logroñés
75%
Draw or SD Logroñés
73%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+
11%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals
68%
Arnedo 2+ goals
31%
Arnedo 3+ goals
11%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
79%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
46%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)
37%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + SD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

SD Logroñés attack 2.33 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arnedo scores more
27%
level
25%
SD Logroñés scores more
47%

SD Logroñés at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 1–0 SD Logroñés

Arnedo beat SD Logroñés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.