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Arnedo vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Arnedo
Arnedo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Calzada
La Calzada
Iván Pascual 62'
Andreica Madalin 77'
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 31Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Arnedo53%
×Draw24%
La Calzada22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnedo
1.69
La Calzada
1.00

Arnedo creates 69% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 108 away

creates per match

Arnedo
1.92
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Arnedo
0.81
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw
78%
Arnedo or La Calzada
76%
Draw or La Calzada
47%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+
29%
La Calzada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals
82%
Arnedo 2+ goals
50%
Arnedo 3+ goals
24%
La Calzada 1+ goals
63%
La Calzada 2+ goals
26%
La Calzada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)
71%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arnedo scores more
53%
level
24%
La Calzada scores more
22%

Arnedo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
Jesús García← Miguel Pison
62'
Iván Pascual
71'
Diego Pozo← Efrén Ruiz
71'
Cristian Padilla← Aarón de Benito
75'
Guillermo Amelivia← Angel Chacon
77'
Andreica Madalin
79'
Sito Castro← Joel Arimany
79'
Nacho Navajas← Manuel Ballestero
86'
Daniel Mateo← Daniel Soto
86'
Andrés Lorenzo← Aritz Bañuelos
Arnedo
La
Adrià Molluna
Molluna
Andrés González
González
Casado
Casado
Pablo Ruiz
Ruiz
Aritz Bañuelos
▼
Bañuelos
S. Londoño
Londoño
Efrén Ruiz
▼
Ruiz
Daniel Soto
▼
Soto
Andreica Madalin
⚽
Madalin
Aarón de Benito
▼
Benito
Miguel Pison
▼
Pison
Víctor Pradas
Pradas
Noel Lizarbe
Lizarbe
N. Sharikadze
Sharikadz
Alfonso Corbacho
Corbacho
Adrián Ruiz
Ruiz
Iván Pascual
⚽
Pascual
Sergio Moriones
Moriones
Angel Chacon
▼
Chacon
Joel Arimany
▼
Arimany
Manuel Ballestero
▼
Ballester
Mario García
García
Eduardo Hache
Manager: Eduardo Hache
75'▲Guillermo Amelivia←▼Angel Chacon
79'▲Sito Castro←▼Joel Arimany
79'▲Nacho Navajas←▼Manuel Ballestero

Arnedo substitutes

AmeliviaCastroNavajas
Iban Guereñu
Manager: Iban Guereñu
60'▲Jesús García←▼Miguel Pison
71'▲Diego Pozo←▼Efrén Ruiz
71'▲Cristian Padilla←▼Aarón de Benito
86'▲Daniel Mateo←▼Daniel Soto
86'▲Andrés Lorenzo←▼Aritz Bañuelos

La Calzada substitutes

GarcíaPozoPadillaMateoLorenzo

Arnedo 1 – 1 La Calzada

Arnedo and La Calzada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 17, 2025.

Goals: Iván Pascual (62'), Andreica Madalin (77').

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.